[Kingsnorth Power Station, 1,985-megawatt dual-fired coal or oil power plant on the Hoo Peninsula, Kent, UK. The station is owned and operated by E.ON UK. Photo: copyright David Bowen, reproduced under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 Licence]

Every now and again, I like to provide raw, unadorned data about various aspects of our never-ending debate on ‘global warming’. Today, I thought it might be useful to review the fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions of the UK based on the latest complete set of statistics from 2005. The information and graph are taken from The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the primary climate-change data analysis centre of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). CDIAC is located at DOE’s famous Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). All fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission figures are expressed in thousand metric tons of carbon and are for 2005, unless stated otherwise. The error bars range between 5% - 20%, with the figures probably representing underestimates.

The UK In World Context

The UK has the world’s longest national record of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, from 1751 to 2005. Its total fossil fuel emissions in 2005 (149,131) ranked seventh in the world behind The People’s Republic of China (2005: 1,514,126; estimates for 2006/7 above the USA); the United States of America (1,576,537); The Russian Federation (2004: 415,951); India (382,740); Japan (335,706); and Germany (213,969). Canada (146,704) is next, eighth, after the UK.

These figures confirm two trends, reinforced by 2007 estimates, namely that fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide are continuing to rise very quickly, but more significantly that they are shifting towards the East [see: ‘CO2 emissions booming, shifting east, researchers report’, News Release, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, September 24]:

“... annual carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and manufacturing cement have grown 38 percent since 1992, from 6.1 billion tons of carbon to 8.5 billion tons in 2007.

At the same time, the source of emissions has shifted dramatically as energy use has been growing slowly in many developed countries but more quickly in some developing countries, most notably in rapidly developing Asian countries such as China and India.”

China became the largest emitter in 2006/7, while India is poised to pass The Russian Federation to become the third largest emitter, probably later this year or next year.

The total world fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission figure for 2005 was 7,985 million metric tons of carbon.

This means that the UK currently accounts for only 1.87% of world fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions.

Sources Of UK Emissions

This graph also illustrates perfectly the changing history over the last 100 years of UK energy sources from fossil fuels, with a marked decline in the use of coal compensated for by sharp rises in both oil and gas (the so-called ‘dash for gas’). Emissions from coal now account for only 28.6% of the total emissions for the UK, while emissions from natural gas have doubled since the early 1980s, so that natural-gas burning currently accounts for 35.6%.

Total emissions in the United Kingdom, 149 million metric tons of carbon in 2005, have been virtually unchanged since 1980, and remain roughly 10% below the early-1970s’ peaks.

Overall Conclusions For UK Politicians

We can draw three extremely telling conclusions from this data:

1. (a)The Kyoto Protocol has been a singular failure if its aim was to curb the rise in world fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions;
   

2. (b)The UK, despite much rhetoric, has made virtually no dent in its own total emissions figure since 1980, simply altering the mix of the fossil fuels employed; and,
   

3. (c) At 149 million metric tons of carbon in 2005, the UK now accounts for a mere 1.87% of world emissions.
   

UK politicians thus need to take on board the following simple truths:

1. (a)At a mere 1.87% of world emissions, a share that is falling rapidly with the economic growth of China, India, Brazil, and the other developing countries, whatever we do in the UK will have no measurable or predictable effect on climate change whatsoever, even if you accept ‘global warming’ theory;
   

2. (b)In any case, without new nuclear power stations providing a generating capacity of at least 30%, there will be no effective cut in emissions.
   

These are the facts. And the politics? The British public has to be told these facts before we waste billions on nonsensical ‘Green’ utopias. In particular, the Conservative Party must get real over energy policy.

Lunch. I need more energy.