Yesterday, William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, presented yet further evidence that we are about to enter a significant cooling period (‘Chilling News: “Sunspots May Vanish by 2015”’, ICECAP, August 26), as illustrated in their graph [pictured: a full size version of the graph is available here]:

“We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle. A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will be visible after 2015.”

What Could This Mean For Climate?

I have already discussed, at length [see, for example: ‘Cognitive Dissonance’, August 19; ‘Spotty Science’, November 21, 2007], the potential implications of the current failure of Solar Cycle 24 to manifest itself. Just to remind you, solar-cycle intensity is measured by the maximum number of sunspots. These are dark blotches on the Sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur, and these are related to warming on Earth; the fewer the sunspots, the more likely there is to be cooling. The next 11-year cycle of solar storms [termed Solar Cycle 24] was predicted to have begun in autumn, 2006, but it appears to have been delayed. It was then expected to take off in March last year, and to peak in late-2011, or mid-2012. But the Sun remains largely spotless, except for an odd fading spot.

Now, this new report may explain why, as it presents an even more chilling prognostication, because data reveal additional changes occurring to sunspots quite independently of the sunspot cycle per se. These additional trends suggest something more dramatic, namely that sunspots will disappear completely by 2015 [see graph above, and here].

Why would this be important? Historically, we know the dire impacts of such an occurrence. During the famous cooling episode between 1645 and 1715, which we call the Maunder Minimum, the normal 11-year cycle of periodicity disappeared completely, because there were virtually no sunspots at all visible on the solar surface. In essence: “the occurrence of prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global temperatures on the Earth.”

Just so - and, according to the data, this might now be happening again today. So, here we have yet another line of evidence that we are indeed moving into a major cooling period [the full paper, in a .pdf version, may be downloaded from here (bottom of page)].

Cognitive Dissonance All Round

No wonder, then, that examples of cognitive dissonance are bursting out among scientists, politicians, and the media all over the world. A truly classic example can be read today in The Canberra Times (August 27) - ‘Crucial to keep open mind in a climate of change’:

“McCracken believes science should be upfront. ‘I believe that we must state firmly that a cooling is possible in the near future, but that the warming would then resume 10-20 years hence,’ he said via email. ‘It will be very hard to argue for public trust if we say nothing about the possibility, and then try to argue our way out after it happens. Using an Aussie rules analogy, that would be like giving the climate sceptics a free kick 10m in front of goal.’

Australia is definitely entering a footy finals period, and the Earth may be entering a period where human-induced global warming slows temporarily. Many scientists will not be comfortable to consider this possibility, and even less comfortable that journalists canvas it, because in good faith they want nothing to deflect efforts to combat global warming.”

Well, as a climate realist, I can assure you, I am not going to miss an opportunity to score from the free kick. There is absolutely no guarantee that warming will recommence. Yet further factors could well come into play. The common sense of the public may, in the end, prove to be far more scientifically reliable than the beliefs of the ‘global warming’ faithful.

As I have said, over and over again, the fundamental point has always been this: climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables, and the very idea that we can manage climate change predictably by understanding and manipulating at the margins one politically-selected factor is as misguided as it gets.

I wonder if we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the ‘global warming’ nonsense? I really do hope so, although I could do without a cold phase to prove it.

Too chill for coffee in the garden.