“BE ALL IN”

PERFECTION

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 04:03:53 -0700

The distance from third base to home plate is 90 feet. The fastest runner in the major leagues can cover this distance just a fraction of a second slower than the best infielders can scoop a grounder and fire to the catcher. 90 feet is the perfect distance to make the game balanced and fair.

Hold ‘Em has 5 community cards - the board. They come first in a batch of 3, called the flop, then the turn, and the river. Betting takes place before the flop, after the flop, after the turn and after the river.

Hold ‘Em has two standard betting formats - Limit, where bets are a proscribed amount, no more no less, and No Limit, where players can wager up to “all in” - putting their entire stake at risk.

In Limit, the decision to call or fold is usually a fairly straightforward math problem. You put your opponent on a hand (or a range of hands) and then you figure out if you are ahead (winning) or behind (losing). If you’re behind, you compare the chances of improving to a winning hand vs. the amount of money in the pot vs. the amount you have to pay to see the next card. If you have a mathematical advantage, you continue, if not, you release the hand and fold.

No Limit is a beast of a totally different kind. In No Limit, not only do you have to be running the same math calculation, but you have to factor in a wider range of potential results. If your opponent will call you if you catch up and make your hand, that is known as “implied odds”. If you are ahead and your opponent might catch up, those are “reverse implied odds”. Somewhere between the science of Limit and the psychology of 9 people trying to take each other’s money lies the art of No Limit Hold ‘Em.

Here’s a key hand from tonight’s game. I am “under the gun” (that is, the first person to act before the flop). I have QcJs. I make a nonsense raise to build the pot and we see the flop 4 handed. I am up against a guy I read as very rock-like - willing to play only great cards in great position, and a very loose, very aggressive player who enjoys bullying the table, and a third player who I have a near-perfect read on based on his inability to control his posture when he makes a strong hand.

The flop is a scary JcTc8S. I am first to act. I lead out for $75, hoping none of my opponents has a made hand. With top pair, an overcard, and a gutshot (4-out) straight draw, my hand is ok to press aggressively to make everyone else play against me rather than passively waiting to see if I improve. Two players, the aggressive player and the rock smooth call the $75. Gulp - that’s just not a good sign.

The turn doesn’t get much better, coming 7s. So here’s my analysis. There’s a chance that both the callers were on the club flush draw. I think there’s some chance that the rock has AA or KK, maybe QQ. If either was on the straight draw, they just came good to my detriment. On the other hand, they may have hit what poker players call “the idiot end” of the straight - the bottom end. There’s two straights on this board, Q9, and 96. A player with a 9 would have started with an open ender, but might have caught the bottom end.

As I am first to act, I have temporary control of the hand. The other players will be reacting to my action. I consider my options here for about 3 minutes - just long enough to make sure that the other two know that I’m acting with care and deliberation, and not “tilting” (poker player slang for getting angry and doing stupid things when the cards run bad). I grit my teeth and push “all in”, making an opening bet of a little over $300.

Now the aggressive player to my left has the pressure. For all he knows, I have Q9 and am sitting on the current “nuts” (the best possible hand at this juncture). On the other hand, I might have air - I could be semi-bluffing (making a big bet even with the worst hand because I could improve to the best hand), or I could just have top pair. I could also have a “set”, which means 3 of a kind; two in the hole, and one on board. The advantage of holding a set here is that even if either flush comes good, if it pairs the board I would improve to a full house and still win.

Aggressive player hems and haws and hollywoods for a few minutes then he calls. Now the attention shifts to the rock. It’s pretty clear that the rock has the nut club draw. He almost certainly started with AcKc. If a Q comes, he has the nut straight, and if any club comes he has the nut flush. Still, the size of the bets has put a lot of pressure on him, despite his huge stack - well over $3,000. Nobody wants to lose a big pot in this situation due to lack of confidence and it wouldn’t hurt him badly if he did.

However, when you’re The Rock and you have a big stack, you usually got it the old fashioned way, by only calling when you have a made hand. After a lengthy argument with himself and some banter with the rail (the people not in the game just watching), Rock releases his hand in the muck.

The dealer now brings the river - a glorious, perfect 9d, turning my top pair into a Q high straight. I announce “straight”, the aggressive player says “me too”, but tosses his hand in disgust as he sees that I’ve rivered him out of close to $1,000. He had flopped bottom pair, and turned the idiot end of the straight - his suckout countered by my re-suck.

Hold ‘Em uses a 5 card board, and that’s a perfect number, just like the distance from 3rd to home. This time, the river is kind, and the only thing I have to worry about is getting my new huge mound of chips stacked before the next hand is dealt.

I’m leaving the Napa Valley Casino behind as I travel on to GenCon, but I’ll always remember the two nights of poker I played, and the $2,000 in cash I took from the friendly natives of central California.

CALIFORNIA DREAMING

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:00:35 -0700

Outside the glittery world of Las Vegas, or the exceptional resorts of major tourist spots, you’ll find millions of hands of poker dealt all over the country in smaller card rooms just like one one pictured above, the Napa Valley Casino.

Almost without exception you’ll find these venues to be a relaxed atmosphere where people from all different walks of life grab a chair, stack some chips, and try to take a hand to the river. Black, hispanic, asian, and white folk of all ages and income levels gather in peace and friendship to play some cards.

The routines are the same as the biggest games in Vegas. The rote of shuffle, cut, shuffle, post blinds and deal is invariant. The style of play, however, can be radically different from place to place. Up in Seattle, where all cash games are limit games, and the only place you get no-limit action is in tournaments (or a semi-secret game at the Mukleshoot Casino), people play with more mathematical precision. Down south, in California, where no-limit has been played almost as long as it was in Texas, the game is much looser.

I rolled into the Napa Valley Casino in late afternoon. Although there were a half-dozen tables of limit in play they only had one no-limit table available. After putting my name on the list I took a seat with a good view of the action, to seize up the quality of play before I had to sit in with my own money.

In the next half hour I watched the big stack get bigger. He made several tough laydowns - once folding a nut flush draw and a made straight when the board paired and he read his man for a full house. I was a bit worried that the table of rocks were going to make it hard for me to play my small-ball, loose aggressive style. Success for me relies on convincing people my hand is stronger than it is when I want a fold and weaker than it is when I want a call. Players who just shoot for really big hands are not a good fit with my preferred tactics.

Luckily for me, the big stack decided to pack it in and leave, and the house decided to spread a second no-limit game. I found a seat and made a $200 buy in. Unlike the “main game”, this would be a “must move” table. As people got knocked out or decided to leave from the first game, players would be moved from the second table to the first. My name was 3rd on the must move list so I expected to have about an hour at the first table before having to go face the rocks at the main.

During that time I managed to bully my table mercilessly. When I’m in this mode, I have to be careful to keep cracking jokes, laugh at other people’s jokes, and generally keep the mood light. When someone is slapping you in the face over and over, you might have a tendency to get upset. What I want to do is slap you, then make you laugh at something - taking the sting out means you’re likely to let me slap you again. And again.

By the time I got to the main table, I had doubled up and then some. Sitting in the main game I ended up in seat 5 which put me squarely opposite the dealer with a great view of both sides of the table. Normally I like to sit on the end of the table so I can kind of sprawl out (I need as much room as I can get!) and watch the board and the other players without moving my eyes or head much. Being in the middle can either be a negative (cramped space, have to swivel to see both sides of the table) or a benefit (I’m close to everyone and can sometimes hear their sotto voce comments or get a stronger sense of strength or weakness from observing their breathing patterns, etc.

In this case, I read the table as being primarily “first level” thinkers, meaning they were focused on their own cards, not mine. That freed me up, because they were unlikely to notice or care as my head swung back and forth like a fan at a tennis match.

Over the next 3 hours I pounded away. Again, I’m surprised by the strength of the big continuation bet. In Vegas, this is a play that is well understood and you have to be ready to go back over the top of the pre-flop raiser. Lately in these smaller town games I’ve been reminded of how few people have really gotten that lesson drilled into them. Over and over I was able to make really big post-flop continuation bets and drive everyone to fold without further risk of draws.

In one hand, with 10d9d and on the button, I raised $50. Blinds were 1-2-3. There were three callers. On the flop a player in mid position opened for $30. When action reached me, I popped it to $130 without hesitation. One fold, and the original opener smooth calls. Then without warning the 3rd player announces all in for $600. The board was 10s8s3x. I thought about it for about 30 seconds and mucked. Amazingly the opener called. He showed 2 pair (10 8), and the all in revealed a semi-bluff for the nut flush. The flush came on the turn and suddenly the all in doubled through. Even more impressive, his original buy in was $50. Which goes to show that if you can take insane risks against people willing to give you action you can make a lot of money at Hold ‘Em.

The lesson for me, reinforced, was that when you raise to find out where you’re at, and you find out, you should act on that info. My top pair was no good in this situation and it was time to go away. This was the only hand of the night when I can remember anyone coming over the top of a big continuation bet, which made this hand really exceptional.

Other highlights of the night included a guy flopping AAAA, and I flopped 4444. He got all in vs. KK, but I was unable to induce action (sad panda). Still I did pretty good. In just over 4 hours of work, I destroyed this game for $1,200.

FADING THE WHITE LINE

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 11:20:10 -0700

The old road gamblers of the 50s and 60s had a phrase for chasing poker games across the plains of Texas - “fading the white line”.

Like a grizzled leathery old pro of old I’m on the road myself and searching for a good game. I’m flying out today to Napa Valley to attend a marketing conference. Due to some scheduling issues I’m going to be spending most of tomorrow with time on my hands. Google comes to the rescue with note of what appears to be a nice little card room just down the highway from my hotel. We’ll see how that goes.

Lately I’ve been playing a ton of poker, but very little for actual money. Cash poker games are illegal in Georgia, but it turns out there’s a vibrant culture of free tournament play all around Atlanta. I’ve found the Atlanta Poker Club and now I have all the poker I could ever want - except of course that it has no effect on my bankroll.

Last week I was out in New Orleans for site inspections of facilities for a future event. Just across the street from our hotel was the downtown Harrah’s and their pleasant and accomodating poker room. Over 3 sessions I booked $600 in profit, showing that fake poker is still good training for real poker. My game is (surprisingly) in pretty good shape although I’ve been playing a lot more tournament poker than I ever have vs. my preferred cash games.

There’s likely to be a big game on Friday or Saturday night this week too as my road show moves from the West to the Midwest - I’ll be in Indianapolis in time for the Gen Con festivities and I hear tell that chips & cards are on their way into the Hoosier State!

From there I jet to Cologne Germany for a week of euro gaming business events. I have no idea if there will be cards in the air in the Rhineland, but I’m gonna try and find them if they’re there.

Updates will be sporadic, but I will try to keep writing as things develop.

WRAPUP

Sun, 19 Apr 2009 13:40:16 -0700

I’m sitting in the airport in Vegas getting ready to fly home to Atlanta. It’s been a busy long week and I’m running close the the ragged edge of exhaustion.

I wanted to write one follow-up post for this blog with a summary of what happened.

I’m leaving with a $-100 bankroll. As late as mid-afternoon on Thursday I was down just $200, and during play on Thursday I had actually made a small profit for the trip. However, I took some wicked bad beats and got busted down to $100. Facing the prospect of 3 more days in Vegas I decided to expand my bankroll and keep at it, since I felt that overall I was doing OK (if not great).

Subsequently I booked 2 winning sessions and 1 losing session, netting out -$100. Twice during this period I was looking at a loss of over $400, but rallied back to even or profit. I had a bit of a financial windfall at the start of the trip in an unrelated business transaction so adding to my target bankroll wasn’t an impact on our household finances. Under other conditions I would not have done it.

Lessons learned from this trip:

As expected, my stamina is shot compared to where it was in 2007. In the future I need to work on pacing and rest and not “binge” at the tables. On Friday night, I entered the $1/$2 game at the Riv and I went to bed at 8:15 that morning. Needless to say, this kind of play leads to exhaustion at the table and a highly-disrupted sleep schedule leading to even more fatigue.
Across all the poker I played, which I estimate at about 50 hours, almost all my losses came in just 3 sessions. Had I enforced a “stop loss” rule - a maximum amount of money I would allow myself to commit in any one day, these “losing streaks” would have been minimized. I know that the conventional poker wisdom is that you play on in a game you believe you can beat, but I think there are too many variables at work in these short, intense stretches of play against random strangers who keep rotating in and out of the game as they bust. A defined stop-lose regime strikes me as being the superior strategy.
I continue to have massive problems with profit management. Despite telling myself constantly to book small wins, I allowed my enthusiasm for playing and my “read” on the table to overrule that objective, leading to losses in games I was beating. Combined with #1, this is a deadly tendency. This is a big hole in my overall poker play, which I had apparently gained some control over at the end of 2007 and have now lost. Iron discipline must be restored.
I’m having problems reading people with strong hands vs. AK. Several times during the trip I put players on the “other” hand - they had a strong hand when I thought they had AK, and had AK when I thought they had a strong hand. Only twice did I make a good read - once I folded 99 preflop rather than play for all my money on a coin-flip, and the other time I called a guy who re-raised me all in when I held QQ and he held JJ. This was a skill I had developed to quite a significant extent, and I can only assume that it is a function of my absence from regular play that has degraded it.
A long time ago I eliminated Ax offsuit other than broadway hands from my starting hand selection, which was the key decision that switched my play from a negative to a positive EV. I am increasingly thinking that I need to add drawing hands below 6 from that array as well. In the past I have done really well with “lowball” but I noticed that on this trip I was having a very hard time getting paid when I made these hands, and losing money trying to chase or defend them in situations where I flopped small flushes, or pairs with open-ended straight draws.
I typically bought in for $200 in the $1/$2 games. However, I often found myself well below $100, and rallying back to book $300-$500 cash outs. I am thinking that I may just start buying in at $100; not only does that increase the “number” of times I can play, but perhaps it is having some psychological benefit on either myself or my opponents, or both - something is clearly working to my advantage.
Last but not least, I do not think $1,000 is a large enough bankroll for these games. I think that the number has to be $2,000 to be really comfortable. If I combined a larger bankroll with a daily buy-in cap, and better discipline about leaving a table to lock in a win, I think it would have a dramatic effect on my over-all money management results.

FLATLINING

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 18:30:14 -0700

Not a lot to report other than near-total disaster.

Somewhere in this town is a table where the guy with the flushdraw misses. The guy who calls with 56 for the ignorant end of the straight doesn’t hit a 4-outer on the river. Somewhere that understands that KKQQ should not be counterfeit by AAKK ever.